capital asset pricing, as one of the basic theories in finance and investment area, develop a model for estimation of expected rate of return and equity cost of capital. this model has many applications in the field of finance. one of anomalies in the capital asset pricing model is the value premium that its proponents believe this risk premium is compensation for a risk not mentioned in origin...

We uncover significant effects of jump risk on conditional equity premium. Realized volatility due to negative or “bad” (positive or “good”) jumps in stock market prices predicts a rising (falling) near-term equity premium. The forecasting power of signed jump risk measures remains statistically significant even when we control for variance risk premium that Drechsler and Yaron (2011) attribute...

Analysis of the equity premium puzzle has focused on private-sector capital markets. However, the existence of an anomalous equity premium raises important issues in the evaluation of public-sector investment projects. These issues are explored below. We begin by formalizing the argument that an equity premium may arise from uninsurable systematic risk in labour income, and show that, other thi...

Based on the fundamental equations of equity valuation, we derive here the relationship between the equity risk premium, duration and dividend yield. Aside from providing a logical foundation for the difference between the ex-ante and ex-post measures of the risk premium, the work leads to other outcomes, namely, but not specifically, (1) that the current, effective dividend policy is a signall...

We investigate the conditional interest rate risk premium in Treasury bill futures returns. A one-factor model predicts that the premium depends on the conditional variance. An Intertemporal CAPM based two-factor model predicts that it also depends on conditional covariance with the equity premium. Univariate and bivariate Integrated GARCH-in-Mean models suggest that the premium relates positiv...

Rare Disasters and the Equity Premium in a Two-Country World Laurence Copeland and Yanhui Zhu We extend the Barro (2006) closed-economy model of the equity risk premium in the presence of extreme events ("disasters") to a two-country world. In this more general setting, both the output risk of rare disasters and the associated risk of a default on Government debt, can be diversi…ed. The extent ...

We decompose the term structure of expected equity returns into (1) the real short rate, (2) a premium for holding real long-term bonds, or the real duration premium, the excess returns of nominal long-term bonds over real bonds which reflects (3) expected inflation and (4) inflation risk, and (5) a real cashflow risk premium, which is the excess return of equity over nominal bonds. The shape o...

The representative agent model (RA) has dominated macroeconomics for the last thirty years. This model does a reasonably good job of explaining the co-movements of consumption, investment, GDP and employment during normal times. But it cannot easily explain movements in asset prices. Two facts are hard to understand 1) The return to equity is highly volatile and 2) The premium for holding equit...

With 87 years of volatile stock return data, disaster-risk models operate in a narrow band between an ability to lower the equity premium from the historical geometric 5.9% per annum to a more model-appealing 4%, and an equity premium that can no longer be distinguished from zero (risk neutrality) at conventional statistical significance levels. Available below-the-money index option prices lim...

We use surveys of economic forecasts to derive a forward-looking estimate of the US equity risk premium (ERP) relative to government bonds. Our ERP measure helps predict short-term relative returns between stocks and bonds. Over the period we studied, low readings of the ERP tended to adjust back to the mean via a rally in the bond market rather than a fall in stock prices. We do not generalise...